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Usually, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year honor follows a straightforward pattern. It commonly serves as a kind of apology. We regret we got wrong your franchise in our preseason predictions.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the skipper who oversaw the largest resurgence wins the prize. In reality, it sparks an yearly debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely honoring superior coaching or simply the greatest upset.

But this year's competition is profoundly unique. The group of nominees is exceptionally strong. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The NFL has been chaotic, with reigning conference champions fading and longtime underperformers improving together. In an ordinary year, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the clear favorite. But in such a turbulent and entertaining year, he's competing with multiple other exceptional candidates.

Below is how the hypothetical ballot should be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors love QBs. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you solve a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely fixed Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. In the right environment, Williams has been given the chance to demonstrate his special ability. Since Week 9, the Bears rank number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a hot streak – it's prolonged performance. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become more decisive, less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the scheme instead of improvising. It is an attack constructed solely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a consistent dose of play-action passes and a creative aerial game that springs wide-open receivers everywhere. Williams has thrived. And when easy reads weren't available, he's been capable to spin magic from broken plays.

The coach came to Chicago with a clear offensive blueprint. Almost each decision – overhauling the offensive line, highlighting the tight ends, turning the QB into a timing-based thrower – has paid off. That's uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer still for a leader who entered the building with the level of expectations Johnson did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the hottest candidate on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no sure things. Somehow, he has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a scheme wizard but the type of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

In a typical season, Johnson would be the runaway choice. Yet the current is not a normal season!

The area where his candidacy runs slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears currently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are relying on takeaways, and takeaways are notoriously fickle. Defensive minds can emphasise ball disruption, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is sustainable. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defense's heavy lifting. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the team would be several wins worse off. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the foundation is in place for long-term winning. However he falls just short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar position to Johnson. He's another rookie head coach who has orchestrated a dramatic resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest all-around football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defense that now sits at number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has nailed the intangibles stuff, which was not a given following his early public introduction and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed their staff with the perfect coaching blend of youth and veteran savvy, Coen hired first-timers. From the leader on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That type of setup is exciting on paper, but frequently collapses in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a their job in real-time. But Coen has managed to bring the entire group and all elements into sync.

Following an early hot beginning, there was a risk that the season would go off the track. A midseason collapse had the team stumbling again. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. Coen did not. Instead, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped chasing explosive plays and started hunting consistent ones. The coach recentered the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three seed. He receives the slightest knock in the standings because he inherited a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Each Coach of the Year case has a hinge moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB choice.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a different signal-caller and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have derailed the campaign in October. Rather, it made it. By the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP candidate. He has cooled off since that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, placing him just one place ahead of other QBs.

Still